21 June 2009

Chatham House's Iran Election Report (and Guardian Council Begins to 'Fess Up)

The Royal Institute for International Affairs has released its report on the recent elections in Iran.
From the Institute's site, Chatham House:
Working from the province by province breakdowns of the 2009 and 2005 results, released by the Iranian Ministry of Interior, and from the 2006 census as published by the official Statistical Centre of Iran, this paper offers some observations about the official data and the debates surrounding the 2009 Iranian Presidential Election.
You can download a copy here.

Added: This from Iranian state media organization Press TV:
Iran's Guardian Council has suggested that the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of people eligible to cast ballot in those areas.

The council's Spokesman Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, who was speaking on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Channel 2 on Sunday, made the remarks in response to complaints filed by Mohsen Rezaei -- a defeated candidate in the June 12 Presidential election.

"Statistics provided by Mohsen Rezaei in which he claims more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 170 cities are not accurate -- the incident has happened in only 50 cities," Kadkhodaei said.
Even so, and even though "
the vote tally affected by such an irregularity could be over 3 million and the council could at the request of the candidates re-count the affected ballot boxes," the Guardian Council might not act. After all, three million votes won't change the ultimate outcome, which, they insist, results from a 10 million vote difference between Ahmadinejad and the oppostion candidates.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

How are the "assumed take" figures calculated in figure 3 of the Chatham House paper?