31 May 2008

Hillary Clinton Has Never Been the Underdog.

Here’s a reminder of how things were before Clinton’s campaign lost the plot—because that is precisely what they did. They overspent and underplanned because they assumed Clinton would walk right into the nomination. And it worked until February, 2008: excepting for a tie in April 2007, Clinton led Obama in all national polls until early February.

Remember that Iowa’s caucus was held on 3 January, 2008. Note how Clinton’s support fell off following Super Tuesday, and remember that Clinton’s plan didn’t extend beyond Super Tuesday.

Democratic Presidential Nomination (from Real Clear Politics)

Polling Data

Poll

Date

Sample

Obama

Clinton

Spread

CBS News/NY Times

01/30 - 02/02

491 LV

41

41

Tie

USA Today/Gallup

01/30 - 02/02

985 LV

44

45

Clinton +1.0

Pew Research

01/30 - 02/02

596 RV

38

46

Clinton +8.0

ABC/Wash Post

01/30 - 02/01

LV

43

47

Clinton +4.0

Rasmussen

01/29 - 02/01

900 LV

37

45

Clinton +8.0

FOX News

01/30 - 01/31

377 LV

37

47

Clinton +10.0

NBC/WSJ

01/20 - 01/22

Adults

32

47

Clinton +15.0

LA Times/Bloomberg

01/18 - 01/22

532 LV

33

42

Clinton +9.0

Rasmussen

01/16 - 01/19

900 LV

34

38

Clinton +4.0

AP-Ipsos

01/15 - 01/17

453 RV

33

40

Clinton +7.0

CNN

01/14 - 01/17

448 RV

33

42

Clinton +9.0

Reuters/Zogby

01/11 - 01/13

459 LV

38

39

Clinton +1.0

USA Today/Gallup

01/11 - 01/13

1021 LV

33

45

Clinton +12.0

Pew Research

01/09 - 01/13

621 RV

31

46

Clinton +15.0

Hotline/FD

01/10 - 01/12

380 LV

35

38

Clinton +3.0

ABC/Wash Post

01/09 - 01/12

423 LV

37

42

Clinton +5.0

CBS News/NY Times

01/09 - 01/12

508 LV

27

42

Clinton +15.0

CNN

01/09 - 01/10

443 RV

36

49

Clinton +13.0

USA Today/Gallup

01/04 - 01/06

499 A

33

33

Tie

Rasmussen

01/03 - 01/06

900 LV

29

33

Clinton +4.0

Pew Research

12/19 - 12/30

556 RV

26

46

Clinton +20.0

FOX News

12/18 - 12/19

RV

20

49

Clinton +29.0

Cook/RT Strategies

12/15 - 12/17

RV

26

38

Clinton +12.0

NBC/WSJ

12/14 - 12/17

Adults

23

45

Clinton +22.0

USA Today/Gallup

12/14 - 12/16

513 A

27

45

Clinton +18.0

Rasmussen

12/13 - 12/16

750 LV

27

40

Clinton +13.0

Reuters/Zogby

12/12 - 12/14

436 LV

32

40

Clinton +8.0

Hotline/FD

12/10 - 12/14

336 LV

30

35

Clinton +5.0

Battleground

12/09 - 12/12

LV

23

47

Clinton +24.0

ARG

12/09 - 12/12

600 LV

22

41

Clinton +19.0

CNN

12/06 - 12/09

RV

30

40

Clinton +10.0

CBS News/NY Times

12/05 - 12/09

417 LV

27

44

Clinton +17.0

AP-Ipsos

12/03 - 12/05

469 RV

23

45

Clinton +22.0

LA Times/Bloomberg

11/30 - 12/03

529 LV

21

45

Clinton +24.0

USA Today/Gallup

11/30 - 12/02

494 A

24

39

Clinton +15.0

Rasmussen

11/28 - 12/01

750 LV

24

37

Clinton +13.0

AP-Pew

11/20 - 11/26

467 LV

22

48

Clinton +26.0

Rasmussen

11/15 - 11/18

750 LV

24

41

Clinton +17.0

Reuters/Zogby

11/14 - 11/17

545 LV

27

38

Clinton +11.0

FOX News

11/13 - 11/14

397 RV

23

44

Clinton +21.0

Gallup

11/11 - 11/14

485 A

21

48

Clinton +27.0

American Res. Group

11/09 - 11/12

600 LV

21

46

Clinton +25.0

Cook/RT Strategies

11/08 - 11/11

376 RV

22

39

Clinton +17.0

AP-Ipsos

11/05 - 11/07

474 RV

22

45

Clinton +23.0

NBC/WSJ

11/01 - 11/05

Adults

25

47

Clinton +22.0

USA Today/Gallup

11/02 - 11/04

508 RV

22

50

Clinton +28.0

CNN

11/02 - 11/04

467 RV

25

44

Clinton +19.0

Rasmussen

11/01 - 11/04

750 LV

22

41

Clinton +19.0

Newsweek

10/31 - 11/01

433 RV

24

43

Clinton +19.0

Marist

10/29 - 11/01

385 RV

17

48

Clinton +31.0

ABC/Wash Post

10/29 - 11/01

598 A

26

49

Clinton +23.0

Quinnipiac

10/23 - 10/29

742 RV

21

47

Clinton +26.0

Zogby

10/24 - 10/27

527 LV

24

38

Clinton +14.0

FOX News

10/23 - 10/24

329 RV

25

42

Clinton +17.0

Pew Research

10/17 - 10/23

837 RV

24

45

Clinton +21.0

LA Times/Bloomberg

10/19 - 10/22

469 LV

17

48

Clinton +31.0

Rasmussen

10/18 - 10/21

750 LV

22

49

Clinton +27.0

CBS News*

10/12 - 10/16

456 RV

23

51

Clinton +28.0

CNN

10/12 - 10/14

485 RV

21

51

Clinton +30.0

USA Today/Gallup

10/12 - 10/14

500 A

21

50

Clinton +29.0

Reuters/Zogby

10/10 - 10/14

426 LV

25

46

Clinton +21.0

American Res. Group

10/09 - 10/12

600 LV

20

45

Clinton +25.0

FOX News

10/09 - 10/10

377 LV

18

50

Clinton +32.0

Gallup

10/04 - 10/07

488 A

26

47

Clinton +21.0

Rasmussen

10/04 - 10/07

750 LV

26

42

Clinton +16.0

AP-Ipsos

10/01 - 10/03

482 A

25

46

Clinton +21.0

ABC News/Wash Post

09/27 - 09/30

592 A

20

53

Clinton +33.0

AP-Ipsos

09/21 - 09/25

631 A

26

40

Clinton +14.0

Rasmussen

09/20 - 09/23

750 LV

28

40

Clinton +12.0

Gallup

09/14 - 09/16

531 A

25

47

Clinton +22.0

CBS News*

09/14 - 09/16

Adults

22

43

Clinton +21.0

Reuters/Zogby

09/13 - 09/16

LV

21

35

Clinton +14.0

Pew Research

09/12 - 09/16

568 RV

25

42

Clinton +17.0

Cook/RT Strategies

09/13 - 09/15

405 RV

23

36

Clinton +13.0

FOX News

09/11 - 09/12

396 RV

24

43

Clinton +19.0

AP-Ipsos

09/10 - 09/12

482 RV

23

43

Clinton +20.0

American Res. Group

09/09 - 09/12

600 LV

21

39

Clinton +18.0

NBC/WSJ

09/07 - 09/10

Adults

23

44

Clinton +21.0

CNN

09/07 - 09/09

Adults

23

46

Clinton +23.0

NYT/CBS News*

09/04 - 09/09

Adults

26

44

Clinton +18.0

USA Today/Gallup

09/07 - 09/08

500 LV

24

45

Clinton +21.0

Rasmussen

09/05 - 09/08

750 LV

22

43

Clinton +21.0

ABC News/Wash Post

09/04 - 09/07

Adults

27

41

Clinton +14.0

Rasmussen

08/23 - 08/26

750 LV

21

40

Clinton +19.0

FOX News

08/21 - 08/22

335 LV

23

35

Clinton +12.0

Gallup

08/13 - 08/16

Adults

21

42

Clinton +21.0

Quinnipiac

08/07 - 08/13

717 LV

21

36

Clinton +15.0

American Res. Group

08/09 - 08/12

600 LV

21

36

Clinton +15.0

Rasmussen

08/09 - 08/12

750 LV

23

43

Clinton +20.0

CBS News*

08/08 - 08/12

492 LV

25

45

Clinton +20.0

CNN

08/06 - 08/07

RV

21

40

Clinton +19.0

USA Today/Gallup

08/03 - 08/05

490 A

19

42

Clinton +23.0

Cook/RT Strategies

08/02 - 08/05

376 RV

21

39

Clinton +18.0

Newsweek

08/01 - 08/01

422 RV

23

44

Clinton +21.0

NBC/WSJ

07/27 - 07/30

481 A

22

43

Clinton +21.0

Rasmussen

07/26 - 07/29

750 LV

24

40

Clinton +16.0

Pew Research

07/25 - 07/29

623 RV

21

40

Clinton +19.0

Hotline/FD

07/19 - 07/22

RV

30

39

Clinton +9.0

ABC News/Wash Post

07/18 - 07/21

Adults

28

39

Clinton +11.0

FOX News

07/17 - 07/18

RV

23

39

Clinton +16.0

CBS News/NY Times*

07/09 - 07/17

LV

24

43

Clinton +19.0

Gallup

07/12 - 07/15

483 A

25

34

Clinton +9.0

Rasmussen

07/09 - 07/15

1300 LV

25

38

Clinton +13.0

Zogby

07/12 - 07/14

396 LV

25

37

Clinton +12.0

American Res. Group

07/09 - 07/12

600 LV

25

38

Clinton +13.0

AP-Ipsos

07/09 - 07/11

Adults

20

36

Clinton +16.0

USA Today/Gallup

07/06 - 07/08

516 RV

21

37

Clinton +16.0

CBS News/NY Times*

06/26 - 06/28

336 LV

24

48

Clinton +24.0

Rasmussen

06/25 - 06/28

769 LV

26

39

Clinton +13.0

FOX News

06/26 - 06/27

RV

19

42

Clinton +23.0

CNN

06/22 - 06/24

450 RV

23

35

Clinton +12.0

Cook/RT Strategies

06/21 - 06/23

378 RV

22

32

Clinton +10.0

Newsweek

06/20 - 06/21

422 RV

27

43

Clinton +16.0

Rasmussen

06/18 - 06/21

763 LV

25

37

Clinton +12.0

Cook/RT Strategies

06/15 - 06/17

380 RV

20

30

Clinton +10.0

Rasmussen

06/11 - 06/14

775 LV

27

38

Clinton +11.0

USA Today/Gallup

06/11 - 06/14

1007 A

21

33

Clinton +12.0

American Res. Group

06/09 - 06/12

600 LV

19

39

Clinton +20.0

NBC/WSJ

06/08 - 06/11

Adults

25

39

Clinton +14.0

Quinnipiac

06/05 - 06/11

789 LV

21

35

Clinton +14.0

LA Times/Bloomberg

06/07 - 06/10

449 LV

22

33

Clinton +11.0

Rasmussen

06/04 - 06/07

773 LV

25

37

Clinton +12.0

FOX News

06/05 - 06/06

RV

23

36

Clinton +13.0

AP-Ipsos

06/04 - 06/06

541 LV

21

33

Clinton +12.0

USA Today/Gallup

06/01 - 06/03

470 LV

30

29

Obama +1.0

ABC News/Wash Post

05/29 - 06/01

1205 Adults

23

35

Clinton +12.0

Rasmussen

05/29 - 05/31

738 LV

26

34

Clinton +8.0

Rasmussen

05/21 - 05/23

559 LV

26

35

Clinton +9.0

NYT/CBS News*

05/18 - 05/23

441 LV

24

46

Clinton +22.0

Zogby

05/17 - 05/20

411 RV

24

39

Clinton +15.0

Hotline/FD

05/16 - 05/20

261 LV

21

31

Clinton +10.0

Rasmussen

05/14 - 05/17

788 LV

25

35

Clinton +10.0

FOX News

05/15 - 05/16

900 RV

20

35

Clinton +15.0

Cook/RT Strategies

05/11 - 05/13

402 RV

24

32

Clinton +8.0

Gallup

05/10 - 05/13

489 LV

26

35

Clinton +9.0

American Res. Group

05/09 - 05/12

600 LV

22

39

Clinton +17.0

Rasmussen

05/07 - 05/10

789 LV

33

35

Clinton +2.0

USA Today/Gallup

05/04 - 05/06

491 RV

23

38

Clinton +15.0

CNN/Opinion Research

05/04 - 05/06

454 RV

24

38

Clinton +14.0

Rasmussen

04/30 - 05/03

760 LV

26

34

Clinton +8.0

Marist

04/26 - 05/01

392 RV

17

35

Clinton +18.0

Quinnipiac

04/25 - 05/01

499 RV

18

32

Clinton +14.0

Cook/RT Strategies

04/27 - 04/30

389 RV

24

32

Clinton +8.0

Rasmussen

04/23 - 04/26

765 LV

32

30

Obama +2.0

NBC/WSJ

04/20 - 04/23

Adults

31

36

Clinton +5.0

Pew Research

04/18 - 04/22

574 RV

24

34

Clinton +10.0

Rasmussen

04/16 - 04/19

579 LV

32

32

Tie

FOX News

04/17 - 04/18

RV

20

41

Clinton +21.0

USA Today/Gallup

04/13 - 04/15

504 RV

26

31

Clinton +5.0

ABC News/Wash Post

04/12 - 04/15

Adults

20

37

Clinton +17.0

CNN

04/10 - 04/12

RV

26

30

Clinton +4.0

Rasmussen

04/09 - 04/12

774 LV

30

32

Clinton +2.0

CBS News*

04/09 - 04/12

392 RV

24

39

Clinton +15.0

American Res. Group

04/09 - 04/12

600 LV

24

36

Clinton +12.0

Time

04/05 - 04/09

493 RV

26

33

Clinton +7.0

LA Times/Bloomberg

04/05 - 04/09

557 RV

23

33

Clinton +10.0

Gallup

04/02 - 04/05

491 A

19

38

Clinton +19.0

Rasmussen

04/02 - 04/05

774 LV

29

34

Clinton +5.0

Cook/RT Strategies

03/29 - 04/01

355 RV

17

41

Clinton +24.0

Rasmussen

03/26 - 03/29

799 LV

26

33

Clinton +7.0

FOX News

03/27 - 03/28

RV

18

36

Clinton +18.0

Time

03/23 - 03/26

511 RV

24

31

Clinton +7.0

Zogby

03/22 - 03/26

432 LV

22

32

Clinton +10.0

USA Today/Gallup

03/23 - 03/25

493 A

22

35

Clinton +13.0

Pew Research

03/21 - 03/25

614 RV

26

35

Clinton +9.0

Rasmussen

03/19 - 03/22

757 LV

25

37

Clinton +12.0

Rasmussen

03/12 - 03/15

790 LV

30

35

Clinton +5.0

Time

03/09 - 03/12

682 RV

26

34

Clinton +8.0

CNN

03/09 - 03/11

447 RV

22

37

Clinton +15.0

Rasmussen

03/05 - 03/08

783 LV

26

38

Clinton +12.0

AP-Ipsos

03/05 - 03/07

RV

21

38

Clinton +17.0

American Res. Group

03/02 - 03/05

600 LV

31

34

Clinton +3.0

NBC/WSJ

03/02 - 03/05

Adults

28

40

Clinton +12.0

USA Today/Gallup

03/02 - 03/04

482 A

22

36

Clinton +14.0

Rasmussen

02/26 - 03/01

769 LV

26

34

Clinton +8.0

FOX News

02/27 - 02/28

RV

23

34

Clinton +11.0

Time

02/23 - 02/26

RV

24

36

Clinton +12.0

ABC News/Wash Post

02/22 - 02/25

Adults

24

36

Clinton +12.0

Zogby

02/22 - 02/24

LV

25

33

Clinton +8.0

Rasmussen

02/19 - 02/22

568 LV

26

37

Clinton +11.0

Quinnipiac

02/13 - 02/19

684 RV

23

38

Clinton +15.0

Cook/RT Strategies

02/15 - 02/18

390 RV

20

42

Clinton +22.0

Marist

02/12 - 02/15

471 RV

17

37

Clinton +20.0

USA Today/Gallup

02/09 - 02/11

495 A

21

40

Clinton +19.0

Siena

02/06 - 02/09

RV

12

45

Clinton +33.0

Rasmussen

02/05 - 02/08

435 LV

23

28

Clinton +5.0

Rasmussen

01/29 - 02/03

448 LV

18

34

Clinton +16.0

FOX News

01/30 - 01/31

RV

15

43

Clinton +28.0

Rasmussen

01/22 - 01/25

435 LV

19

33

Clinton +14.0

Time

01/22 - 01/23

480 RV

21

40

Clinton +19.0

CNN

01/19 - 01/21

467 RV

18

34

Clinton +16.0

ABC News/Wash Post

01/16 - 01/19

561 A

17

41

Clinton +24.0

Rasmussen

01/15 - 01/18

386 LV

24

31

Clinton +7.0

Gallup

01/12 - 01/14

1003 A

18

29

Clinton +11.0

Rasmussen

01/08 - 01/11

401 LV

21

22

Clinton +1.0

Zogby

01/05 - 01/09

339 LV

14

29

Clinton +15.0

Gallup

12/11 - 12/14

511 A

20

33

Clinton +13.0

NBC/WSJ

12/08 - 12/11

1006 A

18

37

Clinton +19.0

ABC News/Wash Post

12/07 - 12/11

1005 A

17

39

Clinton +22.0

CNN

12/05 - 12/07

612 RV

15

37

Clinton +22.0

FOX News

12/05 - 12/06

900 RV

12

33

Clinton +21.0

Marist

11/27 - 12/03

RV

12

33

Clinton +21.0

CNN

11/17 - 11/19

RV

15

33

Clinton +18.0

Gallup

11/09 - 11/12

A

19

31

Clinton +12.0

Pew Research

11/09 - 11/12

RV

23

39

Clinton +16.0

Cook/RT Strategies

11/09 - 11/12

RV

20

34

Clinton +14.0

McLaughlin & Associates (R)

11/07 - 11/07

LV

21

27

Clinton +6.0

CNN

10/27 - 10/29

RV

17

28

Clinton +11.0

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