. . . And We're Off

One week into the campaign and we've got announcements that Romney is ahead of Obama, including an "edge among the all-important independent voters" (NY Daily News). Following this news? An alert declaring that a slightly newer poll has Obama leading Romney, including "a 48%-43% margin over Romney among crucial independent voters" (CNN). In a timely article, Nate Silver posts some "Notes on Poll-Watching," a series of suggestions for fans of election polling. The key takeaway? Take a breath and use common sense before celebrating/sobbing about your candidate's ranking. Place the polls in context (news cycles, economy, etc.), expect instability, don't ignore outliers (but don't shout about their results), and don't place too much faith in prognosticators. Sound advice, all of which shall be ignored. I don't know about you, but I'm not particularly excited about the upcoming election cycle and its associated media hysteria.

A Question About Early Voters & Exit Polls

Should the media be releasing polls of people who've already cast their ballots? 

This could damage efforts to GOTV for either side, couldn't it? If polls, like this one, suggest that Obama is ahead, it could discourage McCain or third party supporters, and it could depress turnout of Obama voters who figure he's got it in the bag.

Sure, on election night we start getting results from exit polls before the voting on the west coast concludes. In that situation, however, exit polling might impact only about three hours' worth of voting. We've still got seven days to go. 

Suppressing the Vote: Dirty Tricks Targeting Voters

In an article at ABC News, Larry Sabato (University of Virignia, Center for Politics) lists some of the most common tricks used to prevent people from voting for a particular candidate--or from voting at all:

- "Push-poll" phone calls using the guise of a survey to push negative information about a candidate.

- Leaflets or emails listing the wrong date or a "rain date" for the election.

- Automated voicemail messages telling voters that the location of their polling place has changed.

- Repeated late night automated "robo-calls" with a message from a candidate.

Other tricks include phone calls, leaflets, or flyers that aim to confuse voters about where they can (or should) cast their ballots, or intimidate voters by threatening that police will be lurking about polling places just waiting to nab you for any unpaid parking tickets.

And here's a nice touch: some taped calls might feature "the voice of an 'angry black man'" or "actors with thick Hispanic accents." Clearly designed to play on voters' "latent rejudices," people who orchestrate such dirty tricks aim "to make the voters 'throw up their hands' and stay away from the polls."

There you go.

John McCain Withdraws from Michigan

That's right: Senator McCain is pulling his people from Michigan. Although the state's electoral votes typically go to Democratic candidates, McCain targeted it anyway. Here's the reasoning behind spending all those millions in Michigan as well as an explanation why pulling out isn't a bad thing:

A McCain adviser dismissed the decision as irrelevant to the campaign's overall strategy to win. He said the original decision to try and compete in Michigan was a tactic to spread Obama thin on Democratic turf. He noted that Obama has already pulled back from several states where he originally had hoped to challenge McCain, as well.

"If we win FL, MO, NC, VA, IN and OH -- all states Republicans have won for decades -- that puts us at 260 electoral votes," the adviser said in an e-mail. "We need to find 10 electoral votes from CO, NV, NM, NH, MN, WI, and PA. Frankly, we have an easier map than Obama. He's on the defense."

Huh? Haven't they seen the polls? Take a look at FiveThirtyEight, Pollster.com, or Real Clear Politics (where Obama currently sits at a 5.8 average lead): how do these polls signify that Obama is on the defense? Yes, the polls can (and will) fluctuate between now and the election, but, well, it's just looking better for Obama at the moment. Keep that chin up, McCain camp!

Obama Hits 50% in Battleground; GOP Wants Mud

Although Senator Obama is currently ahead in all of the national polls, his average falls a bit nationally (RCP has him at 4.8 today; yesterday he was at 5.1). The big news is that he’s cracked 50% in three of the battlegrounds: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. From Quinnipiac's survey, which compared pre- and post-debate voter responses:

Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate;
Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate;
Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate. Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday.

As a result of Obama’s gains in swing states, and, no doubt, feeling pressured by early voting, Republicans are encouraging the McCain campaign towards full-on negativity: from Politico’s Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin:

GOP officials also believe that a sustained attack on Obama’s ties to his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, scandal-stained businessman Tony Rezko and former radical war protester William Ayers could sway undecided voters.

Among those goading McCain to be more aggressive is Tennessee Republican Party Chairman Robin Smith, who said that “people need to see a gladiator who’s willing to defend what exactly he stands for.”

“We’re not talking, for instance, about the radical associations that Barack Obama has, with Mr. Ayers, Tony Rezko and so on,” Smith said. “More could be done.”

Murray Clark, the chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, said he is eager for Obama’s “troubling relationships” to be aired in his state. “I think those things will come up in Indiana again and they do have an impact on mainstream voters in Indiana. You call it going negative, [but] whoever ... is in a position to point out these relationships, I think it’s helpful.”

They needn’t worry too much. It looks like some 527s are only to happy to help Senator McCain in this respect: a Conservative group has just begun running ads in Ohio and Michigan “reminding voters [. . .] about Obama's ties to Tony Rezko, Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright” (Martin).

Such tactics, however, could easily backfire: voters are on edge right now, and they’re distrustful: Senator McCain’s continuing decline in the polls suggests that many, if not most, voters saw Senator McCain’s abrupt decision to suspend his campaign and to intervene in the financial crisis as a political stunt, and they’re likely to see any descent into negativity as a panic move from a flailing candidate (whether he’s actually flailing or not).

Moreover, should Senator McCain win the general election after engaging in last minute mud-flinging, he most certainly will be facing a Democratic majority in the Senate and House--and that majority might find it difficult to listen to his appeals to bipartisanship.

Obama: Leading Nationally at 5.1 Point Average

According to Real Clear Politics, in all of the polling data released today, Obama leads John McCain. The smallest gap, two points, appears in the GW/Battleground poll. Three polls--Gallup tracking, Hotline /FD tracking, and Rasmussen tracking--accord Obama a six point lead.

Meanwhile, McCain's lead in Florida has dwindled to an RCP average of 0.3.

Two things:

The race remains, and will remain, close. These poll numbers will continue to fluctuate over the next month.

Obviously, the McCain camp won't take this sitting down. Although political attacks on Obama should be expected (duh), things will grow increasingly nasty. It shouldn't be a surprise if we begin to hear ever outrageous claims about Obama and Islam, Ayers, Wright, Rezko, and even more sordid allegations. We might also expect another McCain stunt or two if his campaign feels that he hasn't been burned enough by the "suspension" and the bailout's blowback.

Post Debate: Obama Up in Polls

Saturday's Gallup tracking poll puts Obama at a national lead of 5 points.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has more results and some fine analysis. McCain’s main problem? It really is the economy, stupid. And, it turns out, McCain’s refusal to either look at Obama or into the cameras hurt him: people viewing the debate saw Obama as addressing them, while McCain seemed to address a narrower audience: those in the audience at Ole Miss and the punditry. This resulted in the discrepancy between television viewers, the majority of whom saw Obama as the debate’s winner, and the analysts, who claim that it was either a McCain win or an overall draw.

Note this intriguing result:

The CBS poll of undecideds has more confirmatory detail. Obama went from a +18 on "understanding your needs and problems" before the debate to a +56 (!) afterward. And he went from a -9 on "prepared to be president" to a +21. (FiveThirtyEight)

This has got to worry the McCain campaign: they can't simply brush this off. Expect more drama from the Arizona Senator’s side forthwith: time is getting short, and things are going to get brutal. McCain’s strategists (tacticians?) already seem slightly irrational, and this just might send them off the deep end.

Real Clear Politics also puts Obama ahead. He’s at an average of 4.3 points in front of McCain nationally. Not a dramatic number--especially as battleground states remain tight--but significant as things continue to trend his way.

WSJ/NBC Poll: Voters Unsure About Palin

The Wall Street Journal's latest poll (in conjunction with NBC) suggest that McCain's pick may not have satisfied many people beyond the Conservative base:

Asked, “Do you feel that Sarah Palin is qualified to be president if the need arises, or is she not qualified to be president?” 49% of all respondents said the Alaska governor is not qualified while 40% said she is.

If elected, John McCain, at 72 years old, will be the oldest president ever sworn in to a first-term. Questions about McCain’s age have persisted in the campaign, and the Arizona senator himself has said that voters need to have confidence that his running mate will be ready for the Oval Office.

This doesn't look good. There is room for growth, however. Her numbers might improve following the interview with Katie Couric, and we can assume she'll be coached to the Nth degree for the upcoming Vice Presidential debates, so she'll probably be able to hold her own. However, as this poll appears in a week chock full of McCain crises--the Davis /Timmons stories, the assertions that our economy is strong, and the waffling between being a deregulator/regulator, this can't be anything other than depressing for the GOP.

Obama’s Bounce, the RNC Convention, and Hurricanes

(Rather a rambling post. Revision upcoming)

The most recent release of polling data shows that Senator Obama has shot ahead of Senator McCain in all polls. Such results might be expected as they follow the Democratic National Convention. Real Clear Politics puts Obama ahead with an average of 6.4 points. But will this last? We have another few days of the Republican National Convention before us, and there's no telling what might occur in the Twin Cities between now and Friday.

Although the Republican National Convention has been disrupted by Hurricane Gustav, they’ve wisely used that disruption to present the Party in all of its humanitarian glory (yes, in an attempt to make up for the pr disaster of Katrina). Will their fundraising and calls to volunteerism aid them, or will it bring forth memories of the sour responses to Katrina by the then-Republican controlled White House and Congress? This includes the political game playing and cronyism (e.g., “heckuva job, Brownie”), the calls to raze New Orleans (the lower ninth ward in particular), and Barbara Bush’s comments on Katrina evacuees that seemed to encapsulate the perspective of those in charge:

"What I'm hearing, which is sort of scary, is they all want to stay in Texas," Barbara Bush said in an interview on Monday with the radio program "Marketplace." "Everyone is so overwhelmed by the hospitality."

"And so many of the people in the arena here, you know, were underprivileged anyway," she said, "so this is working very well for them."

The implied noblesse oblige, the lack of awareness or insensitivity reflected in those remarks seemed to sum up the party-in-power's understanding of the disaster. Will this week’s attempts at cleaning the slate work for the Republican Party ? As with any event, we’ll have to wait and see. Certainly, it will improve the Party’s image in some eyes—after all, the outgoing President has been assigned much of the blame for the Katrina fiasco—and this effectively tells the public “see? We’ve learned something, and we do care about the less fortunate.” But will it erase the country’s memories of the Party’s overall approach to the storm, the city, and the people?

Obama Bouncing: Gallup 8/31/08

According to Bloomberg, Senator Obama has "jumped to his biggest lead since late July in public opinion polls." In a USA Today/Gallup poll (8/25-28) Obama leads Senator McCain 49 to 41.

USA Today/Gallup wasn't quite so kind to Governor Palin: in a poll "conducted Aug. 29, about 40 percent of respondents said they consider Palin, a 44-year-old first-term governor, qualified to be president." Apparently, that's the lowest result since President George H. W. Bush selected Dan Quayle. Ouch. Even so, let's wager that the public's perception of the Governor will improve. How much and how quickly this occurs depends, naturally, on her upcoming political appearances.

Dowd on the "Clinton Convention" (ouch)

This is a post-and-run as I've a million and two other things on my plate right now.

Maureen Dowd has nailed it: Bill and Hillary Clinton refuse to let go, they refuse to accept that a young man has overtaken them, and they have, essentially, recast the Democratic National Convention as a celebration of Hillary Clinton's campaign. You might suppose that they're hoping and praying the great political fairy will swoop down and dust all conventioneers with Hillary powder, thereby forcing a great change amongst all delegates.

And just in case the fairy fails to appear, they've still got Howard Wolfson claiming, baselessly, that if Edwards had been revealed as a ratbag sooner, Clinton would have gained his supporters' votes and won Iowa. Absolutely not true. Margaret Carlson at Bloomberg cites a University of Iowa poll, taken on the day of the caucus, that found Edwards's voters preferred Obama over Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin.

You see, Clinton can't have lost due to poor campaign management--to staff infighting, wasting funds, or dirty tricks backfiring on her--and above all, it can't be hubris (remember how long she was the inevitable nominee?). Think back to all of the different reasons why she lost (and how she's a victim), and compare them with the reality. Although some might point to sexism and sheer bloody-mindedness as evidence that Clinton was unfairly treated during her run, Clinonistas might take a step back and think about the practical issues that marred her campaign. Instead of laying their pain and frustration at the doorstep of those who actually orchestrated Clinton's decline (that would be Mark Penn and Howard Wolfson), numerous Clinton supporters are striking out against Obama and, in effect, the nation. PUMAs and their ilk continue to muddy the waters with rumors and innuendo about Obama in hopes that he loses come November. Allegedly, they would prefer a Republican win in 2008 in hopes that Clinton could make a successful bid in 2012. That's taking an awfully big risk. That they're willing to take that risk in itself calls their motives into question.

Here's something worth considering: even if the political fairy swept down and swayed the conventioneers towards Clinton, what makes Clinton and her PUMAs so sure that the rest of the nation--including the millions of Obama supporters--would follow?

Aside: A killer line from Dowd:

Bill continues to howl at the moon — and any reporters in the vicinity — about Obama; he’s starting to make King Lear look like Ryan Seacrest.

Obama Maintains Lead Over McCain & Looking Ahead

Obama remains up, albeit by a slim margin:

Gallup has him at a 5% advantage over McCain nationally: 47% to 42%.

Real Clear Politics has Obama leading with an average of 5.7%.

Rasmussen reports that Libertarians back Obama over McCain 53% to 38%, and in a national poll, Obama leads McCain 47% to 40%.

While it's a slender lead, Obama has remained consistently ahead of McCain since he was declared the presumptive nominee. In fact, Gallup notes that McCain "has not held a statistically significant lead since early May." No wonder McCain has, once again, shaken up his staff.

My guess is that polls will remain thisclose up until November 4th. There will be bumps and dips as we move through the Democratic and Republican conventions, and as 527 ads begin to overtake our television screens and radio broadcasts, but it does look as though the country will maintain the near 50/50 ideological split that we've had in recent years. (Hey--Charlie Cook agrees! )

Aside: I missed blogging on Wesley Clark's commentary that suggested John McCain's military service, and his experience as a POW, didn't qualify him to be president. Not only was this ludicrously inappropriate, but it was just an asshole thing to say. I'm mighty pleased that Obama chucked him. I won't say "threw him under the bus" for this reason.

Obama's Huge Lead Over McCain: Newsweek

Newsweek today reports that Obama has opened up at 15 point lead over John McCain: 51% to 36% in a random poll of 1,010 adults. On top of the recent Quinnipiac poll numbers that show Obama leading in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, it looks like he might be winning over Senator Clinton's supporters.

Will the die hards swing for him as we approach the convention? Who knows. Some voices on the internet remain strident, while others are growing more moderate. I'm thinking that the vast majority of the most vocal anti-Obama Clinton supporters are Republicans trying to suck on the last drops of Democratic discord made possible by Operation Chaos.

I've some links, but I'm tired so I'll insert them tomorrow. Consider this an electronic sticky note.

Obama Bounce: UP in FLA, PA, and OH

Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic sums up today's Quinnipiac poll results nicely:

Quinnipiac's out with surveys of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania this morning showing Obama gains in each state as compared to the last time Q-PAC polled. The sample sizes are huge -- more than 1,400 likely votes in each state, although I'm a little wary of likely voter samples at this stage. No matter:

Florida: Obama: 47, McCain 43
Ohio: Obama 48, McCain 42
Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 40

I thought these states were chock full of never-say-die McCain democrats?
Nevermind.