Iran: Rafsanjani Set to "Outflank" Khamenei

This, if true, is huge news. According to EurasiaNet, Iran's hardliners sense "that a shoe is about to drop."

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- Iran’s savviest political operator and an arch-enemy of Ayatollah Khamenei’s -- has kept out of the public spotlight since the rigged June 12 presidential election triggered the political crisis. The widespread belief is that Rafsanjani has been in the holy city of Qom, working to assemble a religious and political coalition to topple the supreme leader and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Apparently, the hardliners in Khamenei's camp are more worried about Rfsanjani than about the popular uprising. And so they should:

Now that Ayatollah Khamenei has become inexorably connected to Ahmadinejad’s power grab, many clerics are coming around to the idea that the current system needs to be changed [. . . .]

A reformist website, Rooyeh, reported that Rafsanjani already had the support of nearly a majority of the Assembly of Experts, a body that constitutionally has the power to remove Ayatollah Khamenei. The report also indicated that Rafsanjani’s lobbying efforts were continuing to bring more clerics over to his side. Rafsanjani’s aim, the website added, is the establishment of a leadership council, comprising of three or more top religious leaders, to replace the institution of supreme leader. Shortly after it posted the report on Rafsanjani’s efforts to establish a new collective leadership, government officials pulled the plug on Rooyeh.

We'll know more later in the week. As it stands. Mousavi has called for a nation-wide strike on Tuesday the 23rd. More demonstrations are planned for the upcoming days, ostensibly as a display of mourning for the victims of the past week's brutalities.

Iran: Global Protest Thursday

From NiacINsight:

Mousavi’s facebook page just announced that they want to hold global solidarity demonstrations on Thursday “for the martyrs that have been lost so far in our fight for justice.” In Tehran, the demonstration will be held at Imam Khomeini Shrine, according to the announcement.

Considering the number of rallies in support of the opposition movement, there ought be no problems attracting significant numbers of people to a local demonstration Thursday.

Iran: National Strike Tuesday, 23 June (& Weds, Thurs)

It's been confirmed by several sources in Iran:

NATIONAL STRIKE TOMORROW (TUESDAY) in objection to the attacks & killings & the coup
(someone else adds: "People - no business in Iran TUESDAY - sorry we are all on STRIKE").

Added: extension of the strike to last throughout the week:

MOUSAVI Declares ALL IRAN STRIKE TUESDAY & Rest of Week! Do NOT WORK! STAY HOME OR PROTEST! Close ALL Bazaars!

Iran: Saturday Rally

Mousavi has not died, has not been injured, has not been arrested, and has not canceled the rally.

From a reliable, credible source in Iran:

confirmed - Mousavi - SATURDAY 4pm Enghelab Sq - HISTORY will be watching us

Update: News reports, inside and outside of Iran, confirm that the government cracked down with tear gas, batons, and chains. Other sources claim that guns and unknown chemical agents were used (the latter apparently dropped on crowd via helicopter). Many killed, many others wounded. Still the protesters continue into the night. Some sold sources for up-to-the minute reports from Iran not issued by Iran's State media:

• NiacINsight
• Andrew Sullivan
• NYT's The Lede
• Nico Pitney at The Huffington Post

Mousavi NOT Arrested (Updated)

Interesting how Twitter is quickly acting to turn misinformation into "real" news (because people are unable or unwilling to vet sources), and how eager some young Americans are to engage themselves in the Iran protests, but who get so caught up with revolutionary fever that they forget to think. Even well-intentioned misinformation remains misinformation, and in a situations as impassioned as Iran's, that misinformation can be destructive. Case in point:

Earlier today, someone on Twitter posted a link to an article at The Guardian by a friend of Mr. Mousavi's named Mohsen Makhmalbaf, which said the following:

I have been given the ­responsibility of telling the world what is happening in Iran. The office of Mir Hossein Mousavi, who the Iranian people truly want as their leader, has asked me to do so. They have asked me to tell how Mousavi's headquarters was wrecked by plainclothes police officers. To tell how the commanders of the revolutionary guard ordered him to stay silent. To urge people to take to the streets because Mousavi could not do so directly.
[. . . .]
Some suggest the protests will fade because nobody is leading them. All those close to Mousavi have been arrested, and his contact with the outside world has been restricted. People rely on word of mouth, because their mobile phones and the internet have been closed down. That they continue to gather shows they want something more than an election. They want freedom, and if they are not granted it we will be faced with another revolution.

The person who Tweeted the link to this article posted it with the assertion "MOUSAVI ARRESTED!!! RT RT RT," and

Okay, maybe I need to repeat this loudly to get it RTed: MOUSAVI AND STAFF HAS BEEN ARRESTED

As you can imagine, this caused a bit of a stir. When Twittering skeptics confronted the poster, he reacted with something like outrage at being challenged:

@[redacted] No, because I have as much confirmation on this (if not more) as on many other "confirmed" things. [he had one article that he misread]

@[redacted] Would you rather I stop reporting the news and leave you to wait 2-3 days if not longer for CNN to cover it?

Eventually, he admitted to misreading the article, apologized, and proceeded to retract the posts that directly asserted Mousavi's arrest. However, others remain, for example:

Mousavi's offices are trashed, Mousavi's staff in police custody, Mousavi is missing. #iranelection #gr88 #clarification

However, those posts caught the attention of others. It's now appeared at Daily Kos, and at least one American news personality (I will keep her anonymous) signaled interest in the story. If Ed Henry picks it up, Lord know what it will turn into (I think he still insists that the State Department shut down Twitter on Tuesday).

I'd like to add this: Mr. Makhmalbaf's column repeats old news.
1) Mousavi's office was "looked over" earlier this week (Sunday), and members of the opposition (e.g., "those who are close to him") have been arrested over the course of the week.
2) Mousavi has been pretty low key all week. Recall that similar reports of him being under house arrest showed up earlier this week). He's not addressed the media, and, excepting his appearances at rallies, he communicates to his followers via the Internet and through others (hence The Guardian article). Also, as he's been quiet over hte past day or so, it's useful to recall that recent news reports announced that Supreme Leader Khatemei had directed Mousavi to be quiet or else. It rather makes sense that he's keeping a low profile in the runup to Saturday's rally. Anyway, there's a difference between being arrested, being ordered silent, and being pragmatic (e.g., playing your cards close to your chest). My guess is it's a bit of the latter two mixed together.

Added: Mr. Makhmalbaf spoke with the AP via telephone today; the AP reports:
Mir Hossein Mousavi is not under arrest, but cannot talk with journalists, take phone calls or stand at a microphone at his rallies, his spokesman said Friday from Paris.

Faced with the limitations at rallies, Mousavi has had to speak "into a megaphone that can maybe be heard by 100 people, if everyone is quiet,"
[. . . .]
Authorities are closely watching Mousavi because arresting him would spark further outrage among his supporters, he said, speaking in Farsi. Makhmalbaf said he is in contact with people close to Mousavi in the capital Tehran, but it's become increasingly difficult to reach them.

Mr. Mousavi and the opposition have undergone an horrific week; that's for certain. My concern is that the tenor of the posts seemed design to inflame rather than inform, and that the poster's outrage at being questioned by skeptics illustrates that some people are relying on Twitter to become the news (e.g., so eager to "break" a story that he or she puts it out there without really thinking). Moreover, the story itself, coming after Supreme Leader Khamenei's uber-aggressive oratory, and at an especially heated, anxious moment in Iran, could have resulted in even more news--and little of it pleasant. Think--and verify--before you Tweet.

Caveat: I've not linked to the Tweeter, nor given his name, because he has been helpful to the opposition, and I don't want to embarrass him further.

Further: Several credible people in Iran have claimed that Mousavi is safe, and that the rallies planned for Saturday will proceed.

Update: 6/21: Mir-Hossein Mousavi still not under arrest. This rumor emerged early last week, gained new life late last week, and refuses to go away. Approach Twitter with caution. There's some solid, verifiable material there, but there's a significant amount of disinformation as well (some of it from misinterpreting information [see below], some of it aimed at misdirecting protesters, but some of it for lulz: one Tweeter who sent out a version of the latest Mousavi "arrest" story, declaring that it had been "confirmed by BBC and CNN," has the following on his feed:

hipsters sitting at Starbucks tweeting about Iran, envisioning themselves as players in a revolution. Viva la revolucion! #IranElection
--

you RETARDS! There aren't "Spies" on Twitter - we're just dudes on computer fucking with you. Hee hee, "Spies" #IranElection

Worth keeping in mind.

Iran: Friday Opposition Events

News about Friday's events in Iran have been in something of a flux: it looks as though someone has been sending misleading information about the opposition leaders' plans for Fridays. Mir-Hossein Mousavi's website appears to have been hacked earlier today, and someone has been tweeting and retweeting misinformation over Twitter. The best I can ascertain :

People should attend Friday prayers.
and
All rallies have been postponed until Saturday, 4:00 pm (I'll post more later).

There seems to be a consensus about no Friday rallies. For information on Friday prayers, I've relied on reliable Tweeters as well as news sources that excel at vetting information, such as NiacINsight (a blog for the Iranian-American community) and Nico Pitney at The Huffington Post. See the following posts on Friday prayers:

From NIAC:

6:32 pm: What’s going on here?

Earlier in the day, we saw a message posted on Mousavi’s facebook page saying “Mousavi & Karoubi ask supporters NOT to attend Friday prayers (which is being delivered by supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei).” We thought this was strange, since they were saying exactly the opposite just a little while ago. Now, Nico and the NYT both have commented about the same message going up on Twitter. [ed: NYT only posted the Tweeted message. No commentary]

Just as we were trying to figure out what was going on on Mousavi’s facebook page, the message was removed. This appears to be an organized attack on Mousavi and Karroubi’s facebook and twitter accounts to send misleading messages to supporters. We got the impression that they were trying to take these messages down as fast as possible, so we are pretty convinced they’re not legitimate.

And from Pitney at HuffPo:

5:58 PM ET -- Fishy. This was just posted on Mousavi's official Twitter account. "Mousavi & Karoubi ask supporters NOT to attend Friday prayers (which is being delivered by supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei)." This seems quite unlikely to me, trying to get to the bottom of it.

Update: Patrick Disney from the NIAC says this message was also posted on Mousavi's Facebook page and then removed a little later. Seems like someone outside is trying to cause trouble.

Like I said, the message that Pitney posts has been tweeted and retweeted all night long, and it seems to have overwhelmed messages noting that Mousavi's sites have been hacked.

Ohio Man Attacked. . .By Iran?

Here's a potentially frightening scenario--Iranians in the USA assaulting Americans sympathetic to the opposition.

Someone who has been truly helpful at helping Iranians with proxies announced on Twitter that he'd been on his way to university in Ohio was attacked by "Iranian or Lebanese" men. This appeared on one Twitter feed:

Leaving for college now. Not sure if I'll be permitted to tweet from class. If not, will write full summary of events between classes.

Am safe, hidden away. Will continue to post reports from Iran, no more info about me.

Details: was attacked by single vehicle throwing rocks while walking. Am safe now, though not in contact with anyone in Iran.

@[redacted] No, I live in America.

I'm fine, filed police report (though they seemed uninterested) Huffington Post will be posting more details at some point.

In an interview with a DailyKos diarist, the man elaborated, saying that his attackers were "a group of men that seemed to be either Iranian or Lebanese [. . . .] They drove up besides him and threw rocks at him while shouting, "Mousavi Fraud." Also, the man told the interviewer "that his personal information was leaked, and is currently being spread both online and inside of Iran amongst the government." The interviewer took this as "a strong indicator of how international in scope these events are. A [sic] American on American soil has already been attacked due to these protests in Iran."

As the man alerted folks on Twitter, The Huffington Post did post more details.

10:35 AM ET -- A word of caution. This DailyKos diary, now featured in the "recommended" section, reports that a man in Ohio who has been helping Iranians on Twitter had his personal information leaked, and then was harassed by three men shouting anti-Mousavi slogans as he walked to his university.

We heard the same rumors yesterday, and my colleague Sam Stein tried to figure out what happened. The Ohio college that the man told us he attended said they had no record of him as a student. And after saying he had called 911 to report the incident, the man gave a reason for why he thought that the police wouldn't end up having a record of the 911 call.

It's certainly possible that this attack occurred, which would obviously be unfortunate and disturbing. But more confirmation is definitely needed.

Indeed. It's horrific that this might happen; there's every chance that it did occur. However, it's troubling that nobody, besides Nico Pitney and Sam Stein, seems to have checked up on this story (e.g., checking with sources other than the alleged victim). People seem to prefer stoking paranoia.

Confirm. Verify.

Update: The story has now appeared at Democratic Underground and the commentators are, well, skeptical. It's also appeared at Slashdot, where the commentators are a bit more accepting. It's also being posted at Rush Limbaugh's site, as well as a few other places.

Iran: Fights in Parliament Over Attacks on Protesters

Etemaad.ir, a Farsi news site, recently posted an item describing an altercation that broke out in Iran's Parliament this week. The MP's had been discussing Basiji attacks on students. Nico Pitney has posted a translation of the story at The Huffington Post (see his update at 2:33 PM ET [6/19]). Excerpt:

After Ansari [MP], Abutorabi [Parliament Secretary] took the floor again and continued questioning the plainclothes security forces once again. At this point Hosseinian, Koochakzadeh, and resaee, the three biggest supporters of Ahmadinejad in the parliament, started a verbal argument which ended with a number of physical fights. As a result a number of pro and ant Ahmadinejad members of the parliament join the fight and start slapping and pushing each other.

Head to HuffPo for the rest.

Additionally, and significantly, MPs claim to know the identities of members of the Basij, and assert that "they will expose the identities of those behind the plainclothes security forces" (qtd. in Pitney). Whether because of these threats or because photographs of Basiji have been posted on the Internet, the forces have started covering their faces (see the 12:12 PM update here). Concerns over being identified suggests concerns about retaliation--either by protesters or, should there be a President, by imprisonment.

Iran: Thursday Rallies (Updated)

From a reliable Iranian Twitter feed:

Events for Thursday(conf by Mousavi) at 14:00 Pasdaran, Shahrzad Blvd UN Building,17:00 Emam Khomeini Sq.

Updated: There's a change in plans:

Today's protest is ONLY in Toopkhaneh Sq at 4pm according to Kalameh. Mousavi is going to be there

Iran Wednesday

This morning, as ever, Nico Pitney has some fascinating entries on his Iran liveblog--go here to read up on the Iranian soccer team's show of support, Iranian authorities' threats against 'bloggers, and Rafsanjani's (alleged) emergency meeting with the Assembly of Experts (which, if true, is a huge deal), and a concrete example of how the army is protecting pro-Mousavi protesters from militia.

Also: this article from The Guardian reviews evidence of a purge of reformist figures in Iran, as well as this item:

There were also unconfirmed reports that Mohammad Asgari, who was responsible for the security of the IT network in Iran's interior ministry, was killed yesterday in a suspicious car accident in Tehran. Asgari had reportedly leaked evidence that the elections were rigged to alter the votes from the provinces. Asgari was said to have leaked information that showed Mousavi had won almost 19m votes, and should therefore be president.

Mousavi has called for a silent protest today to honor those killed in the past several days. According to this Reuters story, the crowd measures in the "tens of thousands" (The Guardian estimates "more than 500,000") and is, indeed, largely silent.

Iran: Rallies Planned for Weds and Thurs

From Tehran Bureau's Twitter feed:

Tehran Rallies confirmed-Wed jun17. 5pm SILENT PROTEST 7 Tir Square . Tehran - Thursday jun18. 2pm bolvare sharzad sazmane melal

Khamenei Fast Tracks Voting Fraud Investigation

An Iranian Tweeter reports: "Khamenei LIVE say he is re-confirming #iranelection was A'nejad win"

Everyone saw this coming. But it's important to note that Mousavi declined a recount and stated that only a re-vote could settle the matter.

In other news: Khamenei tries to discredit the protests by blaming any unrest on West--Obama played it right.

BBC Goes Green

Iranian protesters take this as a sign of support.
(I don't recall the BBC site's typical colors--it might always be green--but folks are taking its current shade as a gesture).

Iran: Rally and Counter-Rally

Shortly after the massive Mousavi rally in Tehran on Monday, people protesting the Iran election results arranged for a second rally on Tuesday. In response, the government arranged its own rally against the "revolutionaries"--a counter-protest--to begin in the same location and just shortly before the Mousavi rally was scheduled to begin. Many Twitterers wondered if the government hoped for clashes to occur between the two groups. Scenes from the pro-government rally were televised by Iran's State TV.

I haven't heard anything about clashes between the pro-and anti-government marchers, but according to eyewitnesses who Tweet, "The people are gathering around in front of Radio and TV HQ in Vali Asr St The situation is calm and everyone is silent," "nearly 4000 of mosavi's supporters are sitting silently in Azadi st."[updated: this source now estimates the crowd at 12,000]; and marchers are slowly making their way to the UN building in Tehran.

Added: BBC reports that eyewitnesses claim Tuesday's pro-Mousavi rally "was even bigger than Monday's - though this cannot be independently confirmed. "

Security forces are on the street, of course, and several human rights activists have been arrested. There are rumors that the army has turned on the pro-Mousavi protesters: while some report witnessing this, others respond that it's not confirmed and may be intended to frighten people away from the streets. Certainly there is a good deal of misinformation on Twitter, and some of it does seem designed to scare rather than inform.

Clerics Reject Ahmadinejad?

Now this doesn't look good for Ahmadinejad. The Wall Street Journal records this bit from Monday's pro-Mousavi rally:

A young cleric from the Shiite holy city of Qom addressed the crowd. "I have come to bring you a message from Qom," he said. "Without a doubt, all clerical scholars are against the current situation. The only person acceptable to them is Mr. Mousavi, they have rejected Mr. Ahmadinejad's request to meet them in the past two days."
[. . . .]
The 12-member council of clerics and scholars is required to approve elections, and technically has the power to nullify them, though it has never done so before. It is unclear how deeply the council would probe the vote, or what action it could take if it found irregularities.

What this might mean we'll have to wait and see, but if Ahmadinejad loses the Clerics' support, well. . .

Iran: General Strike on Tuesday

Added: A source in Iran confirms that a second national strike will occur on Tuesday, 23 June:

NATIONAL STRIKE TOMORROW (TUESDAY) in objection to the attacks & killings & the coup.

-----

Iran's protesters have planned a nation-wide strike for Tuesday, 16 June.

Another rally is in the works for Tuesday evening: 5:00 pm Valiasr Square

Iran: Monday Updates

The Iranian people have taken to their rooftops again to shout "Allah Akbar" and "death to the dictator."

The militia are targeting the students again: Madyer Tweets that two dormitories are under siege: Tarasht and Shiraz.

StopAhmadi Tweets that sources in Rasht claim that authories are wiretapping phone calls, while others report that citizens are leaving their gates and doors unlocked so that people begin chased by vigilantes may escape.

PersianKiwi Tweets that while moving locations, "were attacked in streets by mob on motorbikes with batons - firing guns into air - streetfires all over town - roads closed; #Iranelection" These must be the same people whom CNN's Rick Sanchez identified on air as questionable members of the opposition. According to eyewitnesses, Basiji are in plainclothes and are attacking civilians.

Persian Kiwi also asks that pedestrians in Tehran be aware, and try to avoid, the area of the military barracks off Pasdaran Street. Tweeted: "large number of plain clothes with bikes hiding in military barraks off Pasdaran - dont know what they are planning."

StopAhmadi confirms that protesters have burned the Basiji headquarters in Tehran. Molotov cocktails.

Iran: Where's Obama?

He's being smart.

Some are demanding that President Obama issue a statement of support for the protesters in Iran. I'm inclined to back off on Obama for a bit. He's smart enough to observe and consider prior to making crucial statements that will ultimately impact foreign policy.

I'm guessing that he does stand with the Iranian protesters philosophically and emotionally. Pragmatically, however, he's got to play it cool because any support Obama shows might backfire: Ahmadinejad and Khamenei can spin any encouraging statement into evidence that the West orchestrated the protests. This would not only minimize the people's efforts and discredit the movement (by presenting protesters as dupes of the West), it would also provide the Iranian government with an excuse for an all-out purge.

Also, there's the nukes. We don't know how Iran's current internal strife will play out, and we don't know who we'll be sitting down to discuss nuclear terms with. Cold and unromantic, but that is the reality.

Update: Journalist Michael Scherer Tweets that President Obama will address the Iranian matter Monday evening at a press conference with Italy's Berlusconi. Of course reporters will deluge the men with questions about their stances on Iran. My guess? Any responses will be rather noncommittal; expect no Bush-like declarations of outrage or support for the protesters.

Iran: Post-Rally

Despite the rumors, the misinformation, and the threats, they did it. Thousands and thousands of them. And Mousavi attended. Sadly, violence erupted, and one protester was killed. But the Iranian people stood their ground [see The Huffington Post, Tehran Bureau or niacINsight for more].

Tonight, they refuse to back off. PersianKiwi confirms that "karbaschi and karoubi heading to Tajreesh sq tonight" to speak to supporters. The people have seen what they can do, and they know that the world is paying attention to, and standing with them all.

Khamenei threatens Mousavi and Supporters

Tweeters, including PersianKiwi, IranElection09, are reporting that on live television Supreme Leader Khamenei threatened Mousavi and his supporters. From PersianKiwi:

if Moussavi does not retreat he will be dealt with according to law.

No additional details at the moment.

The government is panicking. And Mousavi's supporters aren't backing down. They're still marching.